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At this point
we begin to approach expert stuff. The ultimate phase of mathematical
figuring in poker is the number of hands you will win and how much
you will win on them, and the number of hands you will lose and
how much you will lose on them. You know the chestnut about the
man who had three farms and lost them all in poker; he lost the
first two by drawing to inside straights and not hitting, and the
third by drawing to an inside straight and hitting.
It is not enough to know that when you draw three cards to a low
pair the odds are 8 to 1 against making three of-a-kind. The necessary
next problem is: What are the chances that I will win if, in that
one case out of nine, I do make three of-a-kind? If your three-of-a-kind,
once you make it, has only an 85 per cent chance of winning the
pot, then, to be mathematically sound, you must deduct your losses
on the other 15 per cent-the times you improve but still don't win.
This again approaches the highest degree of skill. After all, your
opponent may bet into your three aces when he has queens-up, because
he honestly thinks that queens-up will be the best hand. So remember,
when the opponent bets, that he may be wrong! Your bets and especially
your calls will be based on your estimate of how good a hand the
opponent thinks he has.
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